A 1993 Foreign Affairs article by Lawrence Tal, reviewing the effect of the Israel-Palestine peace process was entitled "Is Jordan doomed?". It explored the difficulties faced by Jordanians following the possible establishment of a Palestinian state, given the large numbers of Palestinians within Jordan's borders. Yet twelve years later, Jordan has ridden the rollercoaster of events in the region, and still appears as an oasis of comparative stability among its neighbours. Yet pessimists continue to predict turmoil.
In February 2006, Major General Yair Naveh, the head of the Israeli army forces in the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, was reported as saying: "Hamas is gathering strength, and a dangerous axis starting in Iran and continuing through Iraq and Jordan is in the process of being formed ..... I don't want to be a prophet but I am not sure there will be another king after King Abdullah". His remarks caused intense diplomatic irritation, and a quick clarification from the Israeli Defence Minister, that this was not the official view and that "Israel views Jordan as a strong and stable country with a glorious heritage and tradition and a promising future". Nevertheless, the question remains as to how Jordan can maintain its development in the face of the uncertain developments among its neighbours. Of these Israel, Iraq, and Iran are the most problematic, but events in Afghanistan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia will also affect stability in the region.
The way forward for Israel-Palestine remains uncertain. The democratic election of a Hamas majority presents a real challenge. With Jordan's large Palestinian population, events across the border are always important. The West Bank remains disputed and there is no sign that Israel will remove its settlers, or give up control of the Jordan Valley. This will continue to make balancing a good relationship with Israel, and the aspirations of the Palestinians difficult for Jordan.
Meanwhile looking East, there is the continuing problem of Iraq. The military intervention of March 2003 in Iraq has been justified by the US and its allies in a number of different ways. Nevertheless, one aim was certainly to remove any long term threat that Iraq might pose to its neighbours, and to create a centre of stability. Three years on, the outlook remains gloomy. While the moves towards a democratic government through the constitutional referendum and the December 2005 elections give some cause for hope, the security situation and the continuing infrastructure problems undermine confidence. Yet the new Constitution has yet to engender the necessary sense of unity between the Kurdish north, the Sunni centre and the Shia south. The security problems are from multiple sources: insurgents, extremists, militias, armed criminals, and inter ethnic conflict. Having such a cauldron of anarchy at the borders of Jordan is not good news. It is as well that Jordanian security forces are professional, well trained and loyal.
While Jordan is insulated geographically from Iran by the presence of Iraq, only 375 miles separate them at their closest points. And events in Iran can have implications for the whole region. Four years ago President Bush promoted Iran to the "axis of evil", alongside Iraq and North Korea. Talk of military action against Iran is on the rise. Meanwhile, western entanglement in Iraq has given a new dimension to the regional strategic balance. Iran presumably fears the rise of a reconstructed Iraq under US influence, which could threaten it again. It has watched the growing power of the Shia community through the Iraqi elections with relief. If anarchy were to lead to fragmentation, Iran would see advantage in aligning with the Shias to form an enlarged Islamic state. It can therefore see advantage whether Iraq is stable or not. Iranian politics are complex. However, it is likely that President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad would consolidate his position further if Iran were isolated or feared attack. It may therefore be to his personal advantage to be confrontational is his dealings with the international community. Iran makes threats to Israel, and flaunts its nuclear enrichment aspirations. It threatens to use its energy exports as a counter to any international sanctions regime. It can incite violence in Iraq without difficulty. Meanwhile, the Israel-Palestine problem fires radicalism further, and Iran is likely to continue support for Islamic radical groups, some of which try to destabilise Jordan.
Yet in the midst of all these major events, Jordan manages to weather the storm. It can take great pride in "punching above its weight" in international diplomacy. It is rightly supported by the international community for the role it plays in the region. When western forces eventually pack up their bags and return home, Jordan will remain, having to manage its relations with its many different and often difficult neighbours. The EU has been the strongest supporter of Jordan, and has provided 1.5 billion euros over the past 5 years. This has been a wise investment in development of a key player in the region, and Jordan must be able to count on our continuing support.
Lord Garden is the Liberal Democrat defence spokesman in the Lords and a former director of Chatham House.
Afternote: The short, but intense, operation by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon took place after this article was written. The resulting enhancement to Hezbollah and Iranian support in the region can now be added as a further pressure on Jordan.