by Sir Timothy Garden
A look through the SourceUK.net archives for the past year makes sombre reading. January marked the arrival of the Bush Administration, after a less than decisive election result. Concerns about a more national American foreign policy were soon confirmed. The new President made it clear that he had little time for international treaties, whether in the arms control field or to protect the environment. The project to build a national missile defence system, regardless of its effects on international relations, seemed unstoppable.
In June, the British electorate (those who bothered to vote) returned a House of Commons hardly changed from the 1997 result. The opportunity to change the Foreign Secretary from Robin Cook to Jack Straw was taken. But UK foreign policy continued much as before. Tony Blair demonstrated his continuing enthusiasm for the European Union, but was less than specific on the date when Britain might move into the Eurozone. British forces continued to distinguish themselves in difficult overseas theatres whether in Macedonia or Sierra Leone. But shortage of people and funds for the armed forces continued to cause concern.
The situation in Israel grew steadily worse through the year. In an article in April, the Source said: "Unless the international community acts soon, the long term outlook is very bleak". Subsequent events have confirmed this prediction. Indeed, there seems little prospect of peace in Bethlehem, or the rest of the Holy Land this Christmas.
But 2001, will go down in history as the year of 11 September. Perhaps the Source article, "August – the dangerous month" was just a little too early in its timing. The realisation that there are terrorists prepared to kill thousands, including themselves, in the pursuit of religious convictions has changed the western world's approach to security. The full implications have yet to be seen, but already the US and Europe are scrambling to abandon long held freedoms to improve their sense of security.
The operation in Afghanistan to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist network, and to displace its supporting Taleban government was more successful than many expected. The work to rebuild Afghanistan will take many years, but has got off to an encouraging start. The UN may have a new lease of life. Where the United States will take its war on terrorism next remains uncertain. Somalia, Sudan, Yemen and perhaps Iraq are possibilities.
What is certain is that the world remains at significant risk from further attacks from already deployed trained terrorists. The worry is that these attacks may have a chemical, biological or radiological dimension. We end the year feeling much less secure than at the start