by Sir Timothy Garden
The US military action t has moved to the South of the country. The Taleban controlled area continues to shrink, leaving Kandahar as their last significant city. The US deployed ground troops last week from their warships in what was described as the longest distance amphibious operation in American history .
Initially 750 marines secured an airstrip at Dolangi some 55 miles south west of Kandahar, and armoured vehicles, Harrier aircraft and helicopters were deployed. As the US Commander, General Mattis said: "We now own a piece of Afghanistan ". He compared the slickness of the operation to a ballet movement. Although likely to double in size, the force is too small to take on a clearance operation against the Taleban through the city. But they are helping local anti-Taleban militias, and have also taken control of the main supply route from Kandahar to Pakistan. They can now bring down US air strikes at will, An area of the city.believed to hold Taleban and Al-Qaeda leadership, has been under heavy air bombardment. The pressure has been increased by some Northern Alliance forces advancing from Herat in the west and from the north on Kandahar. Nevertheless Mullah Omar encouraged his Taleban troops "to fight to the death .....It is the best opportunity to achieve martyrdom".
The rest of Afgahanistan has hardly been peaceful. Konduz fell, as predicted to the double pressure of Uzbek and Tajik groups from both sides of the city. supported by American air power. There were fewer of the foreign fighters than expected, and some rumours of them escaping to Pakistan perhaps even by air. In the Mazar-e-Sharif area as several hundred foreign fighters, who had been captured earlier, were all killed following what was described as an uprising in their prison compound. The cause of the uprising remains unclear, as does the reason for them to have been left with access to weapons. But it was serious enough for the US to call down air attacks on the compound. During one misdirected attack, the wounded include 5 US soldiers. It was also the scene of the first US fatality when a CIA agent was killed. One group of the Taleban hid below ground for four days and then shot at Red Cross workers clearing bodies. Another group of 80 emerged after several days of hiding.
Bagram airfield, to the north of Kabul has been pretty busy. The UK special forces remain there, although most of their reinforcements in the UK have now been put on a lower state of readiness. The Russians surprised everyone by deploying unannounced a similar sized force to the airfield to help out. The return of the Russians to Afghan soil was not universally welcomed, and their role remains unclear. It is very reminiscent of their operation to take Pristina airfield in 1999 at the end of the Kosovo air campaign. They may again be staking their claim to involvement in the t post-conflict stabilising force.
Kabul seems to have been reasonably trouble free, but unpredictable acts of violence can occur anywhere. Journalists appear to have become targets with a Taleban bounty on their heads. A Swedish reporter in the north of the country was the eighth to be killed, which makes being with the Press more hazardous than being in the US or UK forces in Afghanistan. Four British soldiers, assumed to be Special Forces, had been wounded earlier and are now recovering back in the UK.
Apart from the Kandahar region, the hunt for Bin Laden has now narrowed down to an area 30 miles south of Jalalabad called Tora Bora, Here, there is a complex of tunnels and bunkers sunk 1000 ft down into the mountains. The US tactics have been to cut off communications and supplies to the Taleban and al Qaeda leadeship: a move that a Pentagon Admiral described as the destruction of "the legs of the stool". But the self contained mountain retreat will need more than air attack to be defeated. In due course, there may yet have to be a major ground assault. There have been broad hints that the UK are likely to take a role in this operation. There are now reports that Australian and German special forces are on the ground as well.
Once the final Taleban controlled areas are taken, there remains a real problem from banditry and lawlessness throughout the country. The UN talks at the Petersberg Hotel outside Bonn among the various ethnic representations have made progress, and there is now real hope that it will be possible to put in place an external stabilizing force. However there still needs to be more clarity about who will take over the interim Afghan government posts, and which countries will provide what size of UN sponsored force.
Is the beginning of the end of the campaign? Not for the US Administration who are sending strong signals that it will wish to move on to fight terrorism elsewhere: perhaps in Sudan, Yemen, Somalia or even Iraq.