by Sir Timothy Garden
It has been an astonishing week for the Northern
Alliance. They have swept south first securing the hills overlooking Baghram
Airfield. Any Taliban forces
returning fire were as likely to be taken out with an American missile
from above as from ground fire. The Taleban fled out of Kabul and south towards
Kandahar, taking their western aid worker prisoners with them and west to the
mountains. Although the Northern Alliance said they would halt at the mountain
pass known as the "gates of Kabul", they pressed on with little
resistance and are now in control of the capital.
In the West, Herat also fell to the Alliance. It
appears that local Taliban forces fled or defected, leaving outside volunteers-
mainly from Pakistan to be overwhelmed.The joining up of the areas in the North
was virtually complete by the middle of the week. Only in Kunduz was resistance
by Taliban forces strong. There was no easy escape route for them.
Meanwhile in the mountainous centre of the country,
the picture is more confused. The retreating Taliban have been reported as
carrying out a massacre in Bamiyan, and there are other reports of some
regrouping to the west of Kabul at Maiden-Shahr
US air power has allowed a rag tag army using horses
and ancient weapons, to take over half of Afghanistan in a week.
In the South, the first signs of the hoped for
uprising among the Pashtuns has been reported. Even Kandahar, the spiritual
home for Taliban leader Mullah Omar is reported to be in trouble. The airport
nearby may now be in anti-Taliban hands. Jalalabad near the Pakistan border may
also be changing sides to support the Northern Alliance.
Both British and American forces have been confirmed
to be on the ground helping the Northern Alliance with this fast moving
campaign. They are able to call down air attacks at precise targets on the
rapidly moving frontline. The Taliban have been abandoning their trenches in
fear of this air power.
However this rapid advance on the ground has not been
matched by the international efforts to build a consensus around the future
form of government for Afghanistan. There is some real uncertainty about what
happens next. The Taliban supporters have taken to the hills before, and it was
from such a position that they gained control of most of the country with the
help of some elements of Pakikstan.
The
uprisings in the South have probably come in time for there to be some chance
of forming a multi-ethnic
administration. . Half the country to the south and the West being Pashtun, and
the centre and north being Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek. Keeping all these different groups pointing in the same
direction will be difficult.
America
is likely to set up airbases for resupply of both military and
humanitarian aid. The next phase
from the US point of view must be the search for bin Laden and the remnants of
the Al-Qaeda organisation. This may take some time, but will also find any
remaining pockets of Taliban forces.
The United Nations wants the Afghans to get on with
setting up their own administration and Lakhdar Brahimi is working on that.
However the UN is not keen to end up providing a military force to police the
settlement. It has had problems in the past where there are disputing war
lords. The US does not want to become bogged down in a peacekeeping operation
which might repeat its experiences in Somalia. Only the UK seems poised to send
troops to Kabul, having put 10,000 on standby for such a contingency. Schroeder has made the provision of
3900 German troops a resignation issue if his Green partners in the government
coalition refuse to support him. The favoured option is to provide a Muslim
stabilising force drawn perhaps from Turkey, Bangladesh, Jordan and Indonesia.
This does not fill everyone with confidence.
The United Nations is moving far more rapidly than it
is used to, in an attempt to stop Afghanistan from reverting to anarchy. They
are expected to establish a presence in Kabul shortly. The security council is
likely to agree a plan presented
by Lakdhar Brahimi for a broad based coalition government, which has the
backing of neighbouring countries. This may prove difficult as President
Musharraf is reported as being angry and dismayed that the Northern Alliance
were allowed to go into Kabul. The UN still hopes that the exiled king, Zahir
Shar, can become the focal point for the new administration. It is beginning to
look as though the military operation may turn out to have been the easy bit.
Meanwhile the question hanging in the air is where the
US will turn its attention to next in its war against terrorism.