by Sir Timothy Garden
Just two months after the World Trade Centre in New
York was destroyed by terrorist attack, the senior politicians of 142 countries
are travelling to Qatar for the
World Trade Organisation meeting starting on 9 November. It will be a very
different atmosphere from the 1999 WTO talks in Seattle, which broke up soured by violent anti-globalisation protests in the streets,
and lack of agreement between delegates. But it is not just the lack of CS gas in the air which will make
these talks different. The world economy is on the brink, or some might say is
over the brink, of recession. A strange alliance of many nations has come together to help the USA fight terrorism.
That terrorism has the international economic system as one of its main
targets.
In times of economic difficulty, there is a natural
tendency for people to want to protect their jobs. Isolationism and protective
tariffs become politically attractive. Yet all the historic evidence shows that
trade barriers reinforce recession and keep the poor nations poor. Much of the
support for the more extreme forms of fundamentalism stems from the feelings of
hopelessness that the world's poor have. So success in building the economies
of the poorest nations can be a direct contribution to reducing terrorism.
So much for the theory, but how will this round of WTO
negotiations play out in Doha, the capital of Qatar? The preparation has been
much more careful than it was last time for Seattle. There is a real sense of
need to achieve meaningful progress on breaking down the barriers to
international trade. These barriers are higher between the poor countries than
they are in the rest of the world.
There are still some difficult issues to be resolved.
Europe and Japan are reluctant to change their agricultural export financing
arrangements, while the USA does not wish to see environmental issues being
incorporated into trade negotiations. In the developing world, textiles are an
important part of their exports. Yet there is a powerful US textile lobby
resisting changes in this area. Nor are US manufacturers keen on any changes to
"anti-dumping" regulations.
The recent problems of high costs of AIDS drugs in Africa and South
America have put intellectual property rights on the agenda. A group of
countries are arguing that public health must come before IPR. Inevitably such
moves are resisted by the powerful pharmaceutical industry lobby in the USA.
There will be a feeling that if the US expects support in its figh against
terrorism, it had better show some greater understanding of the needs of the
rest of the world.
The stakes are high. The World Bank has
calculated (though one wonders how
accurately) that the elimination
of all subsidies and tariffs would increase global
income by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, and that half of that would go to the
poor countries. No one wants to calculate the effect of failure in Doha. The
world economies will fall deeper and faster into recession, and will be even
more sensitive to further terrorist induced shocks.
There is one further risk associated with the WTO meeting bewteen 9 and 13 November. If the World Trade Centre was a symbolic target for bin Laden, how great is the threat of an attack on the world's ministers gathering in Doha? While Qatar is some distance (1000miles) from Afghanistan, it is of course close to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states which have previously been havens for fundamentalists. Visiting Qatar this summer, I was struck by how modern a state it appeared to be compared with some of its neighbours. They have worked hard at generating real industries which add value, rather than depending on mineral extraction. They have a small but efficient military, and they are respected by British forces who deal with them. They can control access more easily than could the Seattle authorities, and they have a large protective US military presence. Nevertheless, there has been an anti-American shooting incident ahead of the conference. At least if delegates are worried about bin Laden's plans, they will be able to watch him on his television station of choice: al-Jazeera. This controversial independent media outlet is located in Qatar, and shows that the democratic freedom of the media has arrived. As always, there are drawbacks as well as advantages to the freedom of the press in time of conflict. But that is also the message of the WTO, you have to open up to each other for mutual benefit. If 142 nations decide to take the world trade process forward, they will not only be enriching each other, but also sending a real signal of collective will to the destructive terrorists. We all need to hope for a successful round of talks.