by Sir Timothy Garden
August is usually regarded by the media as being the silly season. Politicians, decision-makers, and editors are all taking their summer breaks. Important meetings are crammed into the last two weeks of July, or deferred until early September on the principle that it will be impossible to get a quorum for action. Yet behind this comfortable social convention, the problems of the world continue to bubble. The difference is that the world's leadership has taken its eye off the ball.
It was August which Sadaam Hussein chose for his surprise invasion of Kuwait. In western defence and foreign affairs ministries, the 'B' teams coped as best they could. This August has seen three difficult issues coming to the boil. Northern Ireland was hardly unexpected, but it will have been more difficult to put together the key people such as Blair and Aherne with their trusted advisers. John Reid, the Northern Ireland Secretary, is doubtless trying to manage a difficult situation against a backdrop of officials who would work more effectively if they had managed to get a break.
More worrying is the situation in Macedonia. The Albanian rebels and the Macedonian government will not be taking their holidays. But in NATO Headquarters and in capitals, there will be more empty desks than usual. Macedonia is particularly important to NATO for the continuing stability of the Balkans. It is important also as a supply route for NATO forces in Kosovo. NATO forces do not wish to end up in a fighting war in Macedonia, but the policing of yet another ethnic problem in the Balkans is not going to be easy either.
In the litany of August troubles, the big one is in Israel. It was last August when the pace of the Barak/Arafat negotiations were accelerated towards breaking point. After nearly a year of the new Intifada, the situation is more dangerous than it has been at any time in recent years. There is no obvious practical way to bring the Israelis and the Palestinians back to the negotiating table. Arafat cannot guarantee a ceasefire as Hamas will ignore such calls, given that Israel continues to target its leadership. Nor can Arafat go back to negotiate a worse deal than was offered by Barak last year. On the other Sharon will not offer a reduction in settlements or any hope for a solution to Jerusalem. It would be against all he has done throughout his career. So he will continue to use retaliation (even though illegal under international law) as his response to Hamas atrocities. His strategy will for the moment continue to attract popular Israeli support.
This cycle of violence is not something which can grow much further without involving other neighbouring states. Sharon appears set on raising the stakes. The Palestinians have only limited military capability, but they can sustain a terror campaign indefinitely, and the suicide bomber is one of the most difficult problems for any counter-terrorist campaign.
Now that Israel has occupied Orient House, the Palestinian HQ in Jerusalem, it looks as though the next stage may be full military occupation and attempt to make Gaza and the West Bank secure. It has been reported that Egypt will put its military back in the Sinai if Israel takes such action. Iraq has moved its Republican Guard up to its western border twice in the last year, presumably to threaten a move towards Israel. Syria haso far shown considerable restraint having suffered attacks by Israeli forces in Lebanon.
President Bush is reported as becoming more engaged in the Israel/Palestine problem, although he seems very intent on taking his full holiday allowance. He could of course bring Sharon back to the negotiating table by threatening to cut off the US aid to Israel. This would be made even more effective given that Israel is suffering some economic penalties already from foreign investors. However, there is no realistic possibility that any US President would take such a course. There is little room for the international community to bring greater pressure to bear on the Palestinians. They are near breaking point now as a result of Israel's economic measures against them. Nor could Arafat survive as leader if he were to give in without concessions from Israel.
It will be a very bad August if the Israel/Palestine problem overflows to any of the neighbouring countries. The repercussions this time could be very great. Would the Europeans be prepared to back the US, in the way that they did for the Gulf War and for Kosovo? Most Europeans states have severe reservations about the way in which Sharon has acted. Transatlantic difficulties at a time when NATO may be getting into trouble again in the Balkans would not be welcome. Let us hope that none of this gets much worse before the world's leaders are back from their holidays.