By Sir Timothy Garden
There are signs that after a rather bumpy start, the approach of the Bush Administration to relations with China may be settling down. Megaphone diplomacy over the EP3C American spy plane, which landed in China, has ended despite the fact that the aircraft has still to be returned. China has two major topical interests in which it needs US support (or at least neutrality). The first is in its application to become a member of the World Trade Organization and the second is in its bid to host the 2008 Olympic Games.
China hopes to be able to join the WTO in time for the major ministerial meeting in Qatar in November this year. At a time when there are signs of some in the USA seeking to become more protectionist as the economy slows down, there will be less political support for concessions to China. Some will argue that China’s cheap labour helped by government funded infrastructure make it impossible for it to operate on a level playing field. Nevertheless, the signs are that the Bush Administration will not build impossible hurdles in order to block Chinese membership.
The bid to host the Olympic Games is a matter of considerable “face” for China. It had hoped for the 2000 games, but memories of Tiananmen Square were still fresh in the minds of the International Community. There will be difficult debates about whether hosting the Games will help open up China further, or reward a regime with a poor human rights record. Again it looks as though the US is unlikely to mount a campaign to stop the Chinese bid.
We are beginning to get the signs of a more coherent strategic approach by the US to China. The Bush nomination for US Ambassador to China is Clark Randt. He studied Chinese in the USAF and spent a tour in Taiwan. He first visited the mainland for 6 weeks in 1974. He has been a representative of the U.S.-China Business Council, a First Secretary and Commercial Attaché in Beijing and for more than 25 years, he was a lawyer and negotiator in China. This is an unusually well qualified man to be Ambassador, and bodes well for diplomatic relations.
If Ambassador-designate Randt gets Congressional approval, he will have a number of deeper long term issues to worry about than just the WTO and the Olympic Games. As he said during his Senate hearings: “The Bush Administration would engage and cooperate with China where we can, and compete with or oppose China where we must." Any visitor to Beijing is struck by the deep suspicion that Chinese have of the United States. Officials remind the visitor of the attack on the Chinese Embassy during the Kosovo air campaign, and continue to believe that it was deliberate. They talk about the USA as an imperial military power bent on global domination, much in the way that we used to regard the Soviet Union. With this mindset, Ambassador-designate Randt’s words about opposing China will have been noted and added to the list of suspicions.
US plans for Missile Defence will be a continuing source of difficulty. Even under the more limited Clinton proposals, the Chinese saw themselves as the main target for the missile defence plans. They could not believe that the US states was prepared to invest so much money merely to protect itself from the uncertain threats posed by North Korea, Iraq and Iran. As they saw it, the scale of missile defence was exactly sized to match the strategic capability which China deploys. Their response, which has probably already begun, was to look at expanding their long-range nuclear arsenal. The apparently more comprehensive aims of the Bush missile defence proponents will have reinforced this fear in Beijing.
The Chinese view of US unreliability is also based on the difficulties that the Clinton administration had with ratification of arms control treaties. The failure by the US to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is a much quoted example of the perfidy of the US in international negotiations. Now that the new Administration seems ready to abandon the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, this Chinese view will be reinforced.
The Taiwan issue is the one where diplomacy shades into military operational possibilities. While the political temperature is reasonably moderate, there is always the danger of a sudden crisis. Again the new US administration has opted for a cautious approach on arms sales to Taiwan. They did not get the advanced Aegis cruisers or the most capable Patriot anti-missile systems. They have reaffirmed the US commitment to the one China concept. While not supporting a declaration of independence by Taiwan, the US insists on a peaceful resolution. There is now much less doubt than there was under the previous Administration that the US would be prepared to go to the assistance of a Taiwan under threat of attack by Mainland China.
As Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, said:” China is not an enemy and our challenge is to keep it that way." There will be plenty of challenges for both the United Sates and for China is promoting better and closer relations to their mutual benefit.