by Sir Timothy Garden
If anyone in Britain ever thinks of the Kingdom of Nepal, it is most likely to be in relation to Everest expeditions or Gurkha troops. Yet modern Nepal is a multiparty democracy with a constitutional monarchy - just like the United Kingdom. The population of around 22 million remains very poor, and communication around the most mountainous of countries is difficult.
Imagine the effect on British society if the Queen and her immediate family were killed in a hail of gunfire in Buckingham Palace, and if the immediate story were that the heir to the throne was responsible, and that he had finally turned the gun on himself. Then two days later, the new heir apparent changes the story to one of a tragic accident caused “after an automatic weapon suddenly exploded”. Finally the original story is confirmed by an increasing number of witnesses, who are encouraged by the new King to tell their stories. Having seen the conspiracy theorists so hard at work after the death of Princess Diana, we can only imagine what wild stories would circulate even among a well informed public in Britain. While Nepal has a long history as an independent state, it has plenty of internal tensions. The current constitution dates only from 1990 when a popular uprising changed the role of the royal family to a constitutional monarchy. King Birendra had ruled as a traditional monarch from 1972, and continued after the uprising in his new constitutional role until his death in the shootings. The army had remained loyal to the King during the changes, and this reduced the possibility of a move towards becoming a republic.
It is not yet clear what the long term implications will be as a result of the crowning of Prince Gyanendra as the new King (with a short interlude of the dying Crown Prince Dipendra being declared both King and possible killer). The army has cracked down on public order through the use of curfews and quick response to outbreaks of rioting. The new King has attempted to allay conspiracy fears by announcing a three man commission of enquiry. However, these plans have been upset by the main opposition Communist party leader, Madhav Kumar Nepal, refusing to take part in the commission on the grounds that it should be set up by the elected government rather than the new king. All of this will be grist to the conspiracy theory mill. Mr Nepal is likely to be hoping that this will enable his party to exploit anti-royal sentiment.
Nepal is sandwiched between two giant neighbours, India and China. The newspaper reports from both neighbours seem to be trying to remain objective and not prescriptive. So far the international community is standing back in the hope that things will settle down and order will be maintained. The curfew is making it difficult, but not impossible, for tourists to leave the country. There is however a risk to public order if a significant part of the population believes that the Government and the new King are attempting to cover up the truth. The incredible early attempts at such a cover-up have not helped. The British Government will be taking a close interest given its relationship with Nepal over the years, and the continuing importance of the Gurkha troops to the British army at a time of manpower shortages.