by Sir Timothy Garden
There are signs that China is allocating more priority to resources for its military than it has done in recent years. However, it starts from a very low base for a country of its vast size. Currently it spends about half the amount the UK does on defence. Military pay may be considerably below that enjoyed by British troops, but the funds still have to be found for nearly 2.5 million soldiers, sailors and airmen: over ten times as many as the UK fields. The focus on economic growth has up to now made significant extra funds for the military a second priority. This month, the Chinese announced that their defence budget is to enjoy an 18% rise. At the same time the new US Administration is signalling that it will be reshaping its defence policy to focus on the emerging threat that China poses to the Asian region. All of this sounds like the opening rounds of a new Cold War with China taking the place of the Soviet Union. There seem to be wrong assessments both in Beijing and in Washington.
Any strategic analyst visiting Beijing is left in no doubt by politicians, officials, military officers and academics that the United States is seen as a latter day imperial power hell bent on military domination of the world. As far as one can tell, this view is sincerely held. The scale of the US military machine is feared. The proposals for National Missile Defense are assumed to be exclusively designed to neutralise the small Chinese strategic deterrent capability. The bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo campaign is universally assumed to be deliberate rather than accidental. The refusal of the USA to ratify the comprehensive test ban treaty is seen as a lack of sincerity over arms control. The possible abrogation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty is seen as another step in a co-ordinated American plan to run the world. Criticisms about Chinese assistance to the Pakistan nuclear programme are countered with adverse comments about US military support for a nuclear Israel. The one issue which overlies all debate in Beijing about US policy is the Taiwan issue.
On 23 March, President Jiang in an interview with Western correspondents repeated the often stated position that Taiwan was the key issue in China’s relations with the US. He identified the possible sale of state of the art Aegis missile defence ships to Taiwan as “very detrimental to China-US relations”. He went on to say: “The more weapons you sell, the more we will prepare ourselves in terms of our national defence. This is logical.”
Meanwhile the US defence establishment is gearing itself up to carry out a review of its priorities. This review has been described as a radical realignment. Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has focused on missile defences and using new technologies. He has given a former Pentagon official, Andrew Marshall (aged 79), the leading role in this new review. Marshall reported last year in a look at future developments in Asia that China was a potential danger. His report concluded that China might try to bolster its power with foreign military adventures. It seems likely therefore that the new defence review will re-orientate US forces towards a potential threat from China. This will in turn confirm the Chinese paranoia about American imperialistic tendencies.
Although China has been a nuclear power since 1964, it has been remarkably slow to deploy its nuclear capability. Currently it is assessed to have a total of 410 nuclear weapons of which only 20 are mounted on missiles which could reach the United States. Even a fairly limited US deployment of US missile defences would be scaled to cope with this Chinese strategic capability. It will therefore not be surprising if some of the Chinese defence budget rise is devoted to increasing its long-range nuclear capability. This may concern their nearer neighbours in India, who would see a need to increase their own nuclear arsenal. Pakistan would note what was happening in India. Iran would also have a view on what such developments meant for regional security. We seem therefore to be on the verge of a new downward twist in global security. It is not too late to correct these mutually re-inforcing suspicions between the US and China, and Europe needs to be playing a more active role. It will be unfortunate if ten years after the end of the first Cold War, we start a second such confrontation.