The continuing conflict on the streets between Palestinians and Israelis has moved from the front pages of the British Press. Yet the killing continues, and the vast majority of deaths and injuries are sustained by Palestinian young people. The official death toll has now reached 173 over the past 5 weeks. President Clinton has invited Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak to Washington for separate talks on 9th and 12th November respectively. It is by no means clear if anything helpful can be achieved by these meetings.
The reality is that all three men are no longer in control of the levers of power. The US electorate will have chosen Bill Clinton's successor, and he will have entered the final stages of the "lame duck" phase of his presidency. Neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians will be able to assume that either promises or threats from the US will be carried through by the new President and new Congress.
Prime Minister Ehud Barak is also in the last throws of his political office. He retains power only by buying ultra-Orthodox support with internal policies which alienate his key supporters. His peace moves have made him the enemy of the Israeli settlers, who are becoming as uncontrolled as the Palestinians on the streets. Yasser Arafat's control over the Palestinian activists remains uncertain. His freedom of manoeuvre is undoubtedly limited given the disproportionate military response by Israel to demonstrations. He will have considerable difficulty in selling any proposals which try to put his people back in their second class citizenship box.
Nobel Peace Prize winner, Shimon Peres, has said that he believes that the time has come for direct talks between Barak and Arafat without US involvement. It may be that is the next stage if, as is likely, nothing comes from the Washington diplomacy. Meanwhile the Palestinians, and their Arab neighbours, grow more angry about the conduct of Israeli forces and well armed settlers. Israeli citizens become more fearful for their own security as the suicide bombers return. In a sane and fair world, the United Nations would intervene, but the United States is unlikely to allow such action. As a result the prognosis is very bad.