As murderous militias rage unchecked in East Timor after its overwhelming vote for independence, the international community is once again searching for a way to bring order to a troubled region. The Kosovo operation has been heralded as a significant watershed in international law. Human Rights are overtaking national sovereignty as the key determinant for action. The decision to establish an International Criminal Court has, despite the non-participation of the United States, put another marker down in terms of the accountability of national leaders in the field of human rights. The General Pinochet case indicated that the liberal democracies are serious about their responsibilities to prevent crimes against humanity. The slow process of the war crimes tribunal for Bosnia is showing that it has teeth, and there is a determination to bring war criminals to justice over crimes in Kosovo. The UK Labour government has made human rights a central plank of its foreign policy.
Yet despite all this progress, East Timor is highlighting the limits of international law in the field of human rights. On an objective basis, East Timor is a stronger case for intervention by the international community than was Kosovo. Not only was the original occupation of East Timor by the Indonesians illegal, the recent referendum had shown that the population is overwhelmingly in support of independence. The acts of barbarism by the anti-independence militias were graphically reported by the world's media and by UN officials in place. There could hardly be a clearer case for the new world order to operate. In this ideal world, the UN would bring to bear a rapid deployment massive military force to reestablish law and order and allow a peaceful transition to independence. However, in the real world, the UN has no such force, and its members no inclincation to become involved in a war. The allocation of 10,000 or so troops, which each of France and the UK have declared available to the UN, are already fully committed to the Balkans. In any event, it requires months (even with rapid reaction forces) to mount an amphibious intervention into a hostile land. Only the US has such a capability, and after its reluctance in Kosovo, there is little hope of greater political will for a messy operation in Indonesia. Hence the oft stated need for UN forces only to go in at the invitation of the Indonesian Government.
What can the Indonesian government do? A military takeover seemed on the cards at the time of the Asian markets crisis two years ago. With a presidential election campaign underway in Indonesia, there is still the possibility of the military deciding to take over the reins of power. The Indonesian economy is in poor shape despite the$US43 billion bail out by the IMF, and they are seeking another $US70 billion. The UN can try to apply leverage by holding back financial support, but this will only accelerate unrest, and make a military takeover more probable. Nor is it clear that the military are all on the same side. Indonesia has a population of 200 million people, a fragile economy and a very fragile civilian government. Most options for outside intervention are likely to make things even worse. Yet it would be a great step backwards if the international community, flushed by success over Kosovo, were to turn away from the suffering in East Timor. Certainly all military support to Indonesia should cease immediately, and the UN could establish an arms embargo. The UN should also establish a war crimes tribunal for East Timor, with the promise that crimes against humanity will be punished at some time in the future. Every form of intelligence should be used to keep what is happening in East Timor on the front pages of the world's newspapers. International pressure for justice must be unremitting. The strategy must be to make the Indonesian military realise that their future depends on bringing the rule of law back to East Timor.back to East Timor.